Stocks

The greatest investors, traders, and speculators of all time have one  thing in common.  They understand the market does not always go up, they recognize  the market moves in trends and cycles, and they capitalize on that  knowledge. Understanding how the stock market trends and cycles work is paramount to the success of every individual trader and investor. By recognizing the changes in trends as they are occurring, the  trader and investor can protect and preserve their capital while profiting  in any market environment.                                                       1. Market History Why would anyone want to Trade the Trends? Why bother with trend trading when all you have to do is buy-and-forget. The market has averaged a 10% per year return for the past 80 years. Investment firms consistently encourage the i...

 1. Introduction Understanding how insiders (corporate executives, directors, major shareholders) and institutional investors (mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds) behave across market cycles is central to explaining the anatomy of long‑term price trends. This report synthesizes the most relevant academic research from 1986–2024, focusing on: • insider buying/selling patterns • institutional accumulation/distribution • herding and feedback trading • trend‑phase behavior (early, mid, late) • predictive power for future returns 2. Insider Trading Behavior Across Market Cycles 2.1 Foundational Research Seyhun (1986–2014) H. Nejat Seyhun is the leading authority on insider trading research. Key findings across his body of work: • Insiders are contrarian. • They buy aggressively after large declines. • They sell heavily after strong rallies. • Net insider buying predicts positive 12‑month returns. • Net insider selling predicts negative 6–12 month returns. 2.2 I...